The Icelandic presidential election of 2024: strategic voting in a second order election?

Abstract

Icelandic presidential elections are under-studied in the field of political science. We examine the determinants of vote choice in the 2024 Icelandic presidential election and, in particular, whether the election can be characterised as a second- order election, where voters’ views about parliamentary politics are more important than their views on the presidency. We rely on data from four surveys focusing on various aspects of the 2024 election to investigate which factors were the most important drivers of vote choice, whether voters voted strategically against the candidate most associated with the incumbent government, and whether the election results might have been different under alternative voting systems. Our findings suggest that attitudes towards the national government were the strongest determinants of vote choice in the election and that strategic voting appears to have played an important role in shaping the outcome. However, views about the role of the president also played a role and the eventual winner, Halla Tómasdóttir, would likely have won under any of the voting systems considered. We conclude with a discussion of how our results affect interpretations of the Icelandic presidency and the presidential mandate.