Diversity of school dropouts. A typological approach

Abstract

School dropout is of great concern in Iceland. After completing compulsory education at age 16, most students transfer directly to upper secondary school. However, many drop out. At the age of 24 almost 40% have still to complete upper secondary school and this situation has not altered over the years. The group of students who drop out is both large and diverse. To date, research has not paid due attention to this fact, tending to treat dropouts as a homogenous group. Our research addresses such criticism by identifying different subgroups of young people who leave school before graduation.

The results are drawn from an ongoing longitudinal research – School effectiveness and students’ educational progress - commencing in 2007 with a survey in all general upper secondary schools in Iceland. A total of 3,470 students aged 16 to 20 participated, followed over a seven-year period. We build on three different sources: A self-report questionnaire administered in upper secondary schools, registered data on educational trajectories and status at age 23 to 27, and standardized tests on academic achievement at the end of compulsory school at age 15.

The typology is based on significant factors that contribute to early school leaving, i.e. students’ behavioral, emotional and cognitive engagement and emotional problems in upper secondary school, and academic achievement at the end of compulsory school. Student engagement is a key concept in theories and research on school dropout; leaving school is viewed as a long-term process of disengagement. Increasingly, emotional problems are receiving attention in this field of study, both because of the relation to school dropout and because young people’s mental health seems to be declining. Previous academic achievement is the single strongest predictor of school dropout.

We conducted cluster analysis in two steps. First, we conducted hierarchical analysis using Ward’s method. Second, we used K-means cluster analysis to refine the fourcluster solution. We based the clustering on seven indicators, five for engagement (academic interest, social identification, school bonding, aspirations and negative academic behavior), and one each for emotional problems (depression/anxiety) and academic achievement (average marks on standardized tests in Icelandic and mathematics at age 15). The analysis resulted in four distinct clusters of school dropouts, i.e. alienated, low-spirited, low-achievers and sociable.

The alienated are clearly distinct from other dropout groups. They are more commonly disengaged and dealing with emotional problems, being less engaged emotionally and cognitively. In addition, they feel depressed and anxious and show negative study behavior. Their academic achievement at end of compulsory school was poor. Compared to other student groups (also graduates) they are more uncertain about their educational choice, their parents are less involved in their education, they take less part in social activities at school and are more likely to have tried illegal drugs. The proportion of males is especially high in this group.

Feelings of depression and anxiety, as well as negative study behavior, characterize the group of low-spirited students. Nevertheless, they show considerably more emotional and cognitive engagement than the alienated but less than the other two groups (low achievers and sociable) especially with regard to academic interest. They express more need for educational support and counseling, compared to other student groups, including graduates. They are also more likely to have tried illegal drugs, though not as likely as the alienated.

Low-achievers form the group of dropouts that is least prepared academically, with the lowest achievement on the standardized tests at the end of compulsory school. In comparison, these students are emotionally and cognitively engaged and do not suffer depression/anxiety. Out of the four groups, they show by far the best study behavior. Their parents have lower educational status compared to other student groups, including graduates, and a lower proportion of this group has chosen the academic track.

The group of the sociable is more similar to graduates than the other three groups. These dropouts are considerably better prepared academically than the other groups. They are generally engaged and do not suffer depression/anxiety. They are the most socially active compared to both other dropout groups and graduates. They take much more part in social activities at school, compared to other student groups, including graduates.

Our findings confirm that students who drop out form a diverse group which leaves school for a variety of reasons. We identified four distinct subgroups of dropouts with regard to engagement, emotional problems and previous academic achievement. All these factors predict dropout, but not in the same way for all students. The findings of the study shed new light on the complexity of the dropout phenomenon and the importance of taking into account the specific needs of different groups, both in prevention and intervention efforts.